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UK House Prices

As the UK economy slumps towards 2010, what are the prospects for the housing market over the coming years?

Note that various articles on the housing markets of the UK, USA and Australia are recorded at House Price Crash Discussion Forums
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Lord Byron
 10 Aug '17  13:21 : 0 recs

Indians in the times today report white trash tastes good.
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little c
 10 Aug '17  12:43 : 0 recs

Good afternoon, once again, to all those living in the United Kingdom (UK), and beyond! I trust that all is well with all of you on Thursday 10 August 2017! Red Hot Pawn asks us all to use this particular forum, topic or thread to talk about anything related to 'UK House Prices'. As the UK economy slumps towards 2010, what are the prospects for the housing market over the coming years? Well, there could be some uncertainty! BBC News reports that the housing market lull 'spreads from London'.

"A slowdown in the housing market is spreading from London to other parts of the South East of England, surveyors suggest.

While the region is pulling down activity and average price growth in the UK, other areas saw price rises.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said Northern Ireland, the West Midlands and the South West of England posted increases in July.

Overall, 1% more UK surveyors reported prices rising rather than falling.

House prices remained "quite firmly on an upward trend" in some areas, Rics said.
But the balance of UK surveyors reporting price rises in July was down from 7% in June, partly owing to more surveyors in the South East reporting house price falls than the number reporting increases - a welcome move for many potential first-time buyers struggling to buy in this area ... "


FT - UK House Prices - Beijing’s controls on export of capital likely to reduce levels of real estate investment

Why not explore India on film, Lord Byron?
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Lord Byron
 10 Aug '17  07:48 : 0 recs

Morning from zurich
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Goel
 09 Aug '17  17:18 : 0 recs

O ........

The End Is Nigh!



G.
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Lord Byron
 08 Aug '17  08:49 : 0 recs

http://www.acadata.co.uk/ssProfile.php

Click to sell ....... teen syrian girls
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ssaines
 03 Aug '17  21:07 : 0 recs : edited 2 times : last edit 03 Aug '17  21:09

Canada’s cooling experiment

One year ago, a foreign-buyers tax went into effect in Metro Vancouver. A flurry of housing reform has followed, designed to tame Canada’s frothy markets. Have the moves succeeded?
Canada’s housing sector has been whipsawed by policy changes over the past year as governments have tried to cool overheated markets in Vancouver and Toronto and stave off a consumer debt crisis.

In the year since the B.C. government introduced a foreign-buyers tax in the Vancouver housing market, federal and provincial governments have announced a variety of policy changes and proposals that have cumulatively turned residential real estate into one of the most actively regulated sectors in the economy.

The changes have included a combination of vacant homes taxes, breaks for first-time home buyers, tighter mortgage qualification rules and restrictions on foreigners buying homes.

Together the reforms have created a major national experiment in cooling off an industry sector in the face of overwhelming consumer demand. Here are highlights of some of the most significant reforms announced in the past 12 months, along with the market impacts. [...continues with case studies, reference...]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/canada-housing-reform-impact-foreign-buyers/article35854598/
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Lord Byron
 14 Jul '17  07:49 : 0 recs

http://www.kdnuggets.com/2016/12/data-analytics-models-quantitative-finance-risk-management.html
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ssaines
 13 Jul '17  15:10 : 0 recs

Further to previous post:
[...]
CEO Phil Soper said he expects home prices will be soft for the balance of 2017.

"We are experiencing a housing correction in the GTA, no doubt about it," he said.

But that is different from the price correction that occurred in Vancouver when a similar tax was launched there last summer.

The 9 per cent of foreign buyer activity in Richmond Hill, compares to about 18 per cent in Richmond, B.C. The B.C. city is a smaller market and prices were about 50 per cent higher, he said.

"Almost half of the (Vancouver) market disappeared overnight," said Soper. "I believe what we'll see (in Toronto) is modest price increases but fewer homes being sold — not as a violent as the Vancouver correction where we saw 40 to 50 per cent of the transactions disappear."

The Royal LePage forecast is slightly more optimistic than the Toronto Real Estate Board's (TREB) revised expectation of a year-end 13- to 18-per-cent increase.

The report predicts that consumers, who have been waiting to see if sellers drop their prices substantially, will re-enter the market once they recognize that isn't going to happen.

Second quarter home prices rose 22.8 per cent year-over-year in the city of Toronto with Scarborough showing a 21.1 per cent increase as millennials moved east in search of affordability.

For that reason, that part of the city is not expected to slow as much as other areas in the coming months, said Royal Lepage.

Vaughan saw the highest price gains in Canada during the quarter with a 27.5 per cent year-over-year increase and an average $1.1 million home price.

Richmond Hill, which also grew by 26.6 per cent year-over-year to an average $1.34 million has been hard hit by the foreign buyers tax, notes the report.

Given that Toronto and Vancouver are both growing with strong economies, it’s not clear how long the foreign buyers tax and other measures will quell demand for housing, said Soper.

"Like public transit, housing policy is something which needs a persistent, long-term focus," he said.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/07/13/correction-to-soften-toronto-home-prices-report.html

So cue the chorus! "House price crash, house price crash...prices fallen over.."

How's Oz doing?
Jul 13, 2017

After years of surging prices in Sydney and Melbourne, property experts seem to think these markets’ run could be up.

Price growth expectations for the east coast property markets have dropped significantly, with sentiment in the industry falling, a new survey shows.

In the latest ANZ/Property Council quarterly survey for September 2017, industry practitioners rapidly pulled back their expectations for house price growth in Queensland, Victoria and NSW.

This is a different picture to the June 2017 quarter, when the results for those expecting prices would continue to rise in these markets hit an annual high.

In addition to a declining outlook for price growth in these states, confidence from the 1700 industry members surveyed also fell.

In NSW, the decline was the most significant in the country, with the index dropping from 145 to 139 over the quarter. A 100 score is “neutral” so this result is still positive.

Nationally, confidence fell from 135 to 132 on the same measure, Property Council of Australia chief of policy and housing Glenn Byres said.[...]

https://www.domain.com.au/news/a-red-flag-for-housing-market-as-price-growth-expectations-for-nsw-queensland-and-victoria-fall-20170713-gxa6sb/

Cue the hysteria! Run for the hills!
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ssaines
 13 Jul '17  13:17 : 0 recs

Here you go Go(f%^k them)el:

It's written in cogent English, perhaps a tad difficult for someone like yourself raised speaking Rant:
Toronto’s softening housing market should continue to slow in the second half of the year, but is expected to finish 2017 with home prices still up 18 per cent over 2016, according to a new market forecast.

A Royal LePage report on house prices in Canada predicts house prices nationally will rise 9.5 per cent this year, with Ontario driving most of the increase. Other markets outside of Ontario, including Vancouver, are expected to show much more modest growth.
[...]
“We’re expecting home prices in Ontario to be relatively flat in the second half of the year, and it will gradually bring the whole year’s increase down to more moderate levels,” Mr. Soper said. “It’s hard to call 18-per-cent growth moderate, but we’re definitely going in the right direction.”

Mr. Soper said he called Toronto’s market the “least healthy” in Canada after the first quarter of the year, because prices were soaring by unsustainable levels, but he now feels the Toronto market is returning to “sanity” and showing a healthy balance. He said the market is not poised for a significant price correction.

The Ontario government introduced a 15-per-cent foreign-buyers tax in April as part of a package of reforms designed to cool the heated housing market, which helped push prices lower in May and June. Home sales fell 37 per cent in June in the Greater Toronto Area and prices were down almost 14 per cent in June from their peak in April.

Although Vancouver has seen price growth return this spring following a decline triggered by the introduction of a foreign-buyers tax last August, the survey predicts that Greater Vancouver will end 2017 with prices up a modest 0.5 per cent at an aggregate price of $1.21-million by the end of the year.

Mr. Soper said Vancouver had more of a correction than anticipated after the foreign-buyers tax was introduced, but said the region has had “a pretty good soft landing” this year.

However, in both Vancouver and Toronto, Mr. Soper said the question is how long the recent moderation in prices will last given that both cities have strong economies and growing populations.
[...]


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/cooling-toronto-forecast-to-lead-national-house-price-growth/article35669161/
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Lord Byron
 11 Jul '17  08:08 : 0 recs

Come learn how and why so many New York and London finance professionals are switching to Julia.

Julia is lightning fast. Julia provides speed improvements up to 1,000x for insurance model estimation, 225x for
parallel supercomputing image analysis and 11x for macroeconomic modeling.
Julia is easy to learn. Julia’s flexible syntax is familiar and comfortable for users of Python and R.
Julia integrates well with existing code and platforms. Users of Python, R and other languages can easily integrate their existing code into Julia.
Elegant code. Julia was built from the ground up for mathematical, scientific and statistical computing, and has advanced libraries that make coding simple and fast, and dramatically reduce the number of lines of code
required – in some cases, by 90% or more.
Julia solves the two language problem. Because Julia combines the ease of use and familiar syntax of Python and R with the speed of C, C++ or Java, programmers no longer need to estimate models in one language and reproduce them in a faster production language. This saves time and reduces error and cost.
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Lord Byron
 11 Jul '17  08:08 : 0 recs

Come learn how and why so many New York and London finance professionals are switching to Julia.

Julia is lightning fast. Julia provides speed improvements up to 1,000x for insurance model estimation, 225x for
parallel supercomputing image analysis and 11x for macroeconomic modeling.
Julia is easy to learn. Julia’s flexible syntax is familiar and comfortable for users of Python and R.
Julia integrates well with existing code and platforms. Users of Python, R and other languages can easily integrate their existing code into Julia.
Elegant code. Julia was built from the ground up for mathematical, scientific and statistical computing, and has advanced libraries that make coding simple and fast, and dramatically reduce the number of lines of code
required – in some cases, by 90% or more.
Julia solves the two language problem. Because Julia combines the ease of use and familiar syntax of Python and R with the speed of C, C++ or Java, programmers no longer need to estimate models in one language and reproduce them in a faster production language. This saves time and reduces error and cost.
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ssaines
 09 Jul '17  14:08 : 0 recs

Fu*ck it - let's give it a go anyway
Ah yes, Goel, re: Vancouver: "Prices are falling over". Such prescience...
Van is a unique market with attendant problems, not the least lack of land and price inflation from offshore investment.
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Goel
 09 Jul '17  05:40 : 0 recs

"I don't think it's going to create more affordable housing."

Fu*ck it - let's give it a go anyway


G.
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ssaines
 03 Jul '17  12:57 : 0 recs

Link works for me. If you hit a paywall, enter "Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT" into Google, and click on the link there.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Britain-brink-housing-price-collapse.html#ixzz4llywGCt2
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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cynic 09
 03 Jul '17  12:51 : 0 recs

And the reason for posting a link that only a subscriber can read is .....?......

The utility of futility, prudence.

Pay up or be damned
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prudence
 02 Jul '17  15:50 : 0 recs

And the reason for posting a link that only a subscriber can read is .....?......
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cynic 09
 02 Jul '17  13:53 : 0 recs : edited 4 times : last edit 02 Jul '17  14:14

Wail this Sunday.

Yet another Mad Professor at the LSE
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cynic 09
 01 Jul '17  12:32 : 0 recs

Last chance saloon for gradual interest rate rises.
final sentance
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ssaines
 29 Jun '17  20:24 : 0 recs

Contrary to all the dire predictions of a house price crash and the Cdn taxpayer being on the hook for all the insured mortgages:
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. will pay a special dividend of $4-billion to the federal government over the next two years, saying it has excess capital above its required targets.

The federal Crown corporation reported a sharp drop in insurance volumes in the first quarter this year as fewer buyers qualified for mortgage insurance under new federal stress-test rules, but said it nonetheless has sufficient excess capital to pay a one-time special dividend to the federal government.

“The special dividend returns excess capital to the government that has been accumulated over many years,” CMHC spokesman Jonathan Rotondo said Thursday. “Even after paying this special dividend, we are well capitalized.”

The $4-billion will be paid in instalments over a period not to exceed two years. CMHC is also proceeding with separate plans to begin paying a regular quarterly dividend to the federal government, declaring its first $145-million dividend in the first quarter this year.

CMHC provides mortgage insurance to protect financial institutions from default risk if a home owner cannot make mortgage payments on a property. Home buyers are required to purchase the coverage when they do not have down a payment worth at least 20 per cent of the purchase price of a home.

The $4-billion dividend comes months after CMHC raised premiums for consumers in response to new capital requirements that were introduced for mortgage insurers on Jan. 1 this year by Canada’s financial regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Mr. Rotondo said the special dividend is intended to return excess capital accumulated from past performance at CMHC, while the recent premium increase was required to ensure prices reflect current capital requirements that apply to new policies written after Jan. 1.

The new capital requirements apply to all mortgage insurers, including Canada’s two private-sector insurers -- Genworth Financial Inc. and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Co. -- which also raised premiums this year.

“The [CMHC] premium increases also help to preserve competition in the mortgage loan insurance industry and contribute to financial stability,” Mr. Rotondo said. [...]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/cmhc-to-pay-4-billion-special-dividend-to-ottawa/article35498518/

What a concept...
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Lord Byron
 29 Jun '17  19:13 : 0 recs

Freight farms seem a good bet considering their portability.

Optionality the thing, i find planting lots of seeds from the organic gardening catalogue in carbon gold compost produces results.

Once knew a mi6 officer who owned a mushroom farm in Norfolk, he got blown up in iraq apparently, yanks dropped bombs on a hospital he hiding in.

The lesson ? Think on freight farms and Elon musk
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