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UK House Prices

As the UK economy slumps towards 2010, what are the prospects for the housing market over the coming years?

Note that various articles on the housing markets of the UK, USA and Australia are recorded at House Price Crash Discussion Forums
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Lord Byron
 19 Jun '17  07:00 : 0 recs

http://sydney.edu.au/business/staff/stephens
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zorro
 18 Jun '17  15:53 : 0 recs

SSaines and anyone interested in British housing: see my penultimate post in the British Political Economy forum.

Essentially, what is behind the Grenfell Tower disaster is the failure of the consecutive governments of Britain, regardless of their political hue, to provide more social housing, and this has been linked to the central government constantly chipping away at the sovereignty and finance of local councils, also by legislation obliging them to engage in collaboration with overpriced and often fraudulent and negligent private companies.
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ssaines
 16 Jun '17  04:19 : 0 recs

Zorro: The beat juice was in reference to this from Cynic:
[In fact , Lord Byron, you'll find the turnip generally far more liquid than the tulip.]

But getting back to house prices:

Published Thursday, June 15, 2017 11:09AM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, June 15, 2017 12:20PM EDT

OTTAWA -- Home sales across the country dropped sharply last month, driven by a plunge in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) after the Ontario government imposed a tax on foreign buyers aimed at cooling the red-hot market.

The number of residential properties sold nationwide fell by 6.2 per cent in May compared to April, the largest month-to-month decline in nearly five years, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Thursday. The industry group, which represents real estate agents, brokers and salespeople in Canada, noted sales were down a whopping 25.3 per cent month-over-month in the GTA.

The data showed that while real estate may be local, the impact of changes in a market the size of Toronto can have a sweeping effect nationally.

"This is the first full month of results since changes to Ontario housing policy made in late April. They provide clear evidence that the changes have resulted in more balanced housing markets throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe region," CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said in a statement.

"For housing markets in the region, May sales activity was down most in the GTA and Oakville. This suggests the changes have squelched speculative home purchases."

The Ontario government introduced more than a dozen measures, including a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers, aimed at stabilizing Toronto's blistering housing market. Prices have spiralled out of reach for many potential homebuyers both in and on the outskirts of the city.

Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said while the rules have had an effect, they merely brought back "some semblance of normalcy after a manic winter" that will likely be short-lived.

"Given the strong economic, demographic and financial backdrop, don't expect the GTA market to stay down for the count," Guatieri said in a note to clients.

"Policy tinkering will do little to cool demand on a sustained basis. Time to take out the heavy artillery: higher interest rates. The ball is now firmly in the Bank of Canada's court."

The central bank has dropped hints that the era of historically low interest rates may be coming to an end. Just this week, governor Stephen Poloz said cuts to the benchmark rate have "done their job" as the economy builds momentum, a statement that some market watchers have interpreted as a sign that a hike could be six to 12 months away.

In the closely watched Vancouver market, sales were up by 22.8 per cent month-over-month. There are concerns that the city may be returning to bubble territory less than a year after the British Columbia government instituted a tax on foreign buyers of properties in the Vancouver area.

Nationally, the average price for all homes sold last month was $530,304, pulled up by Toronto and Vancouver, where it was $863,910 and $1,110,376, respectively.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/home-sales-across-canada-register-biggest-monthly-decline-in-nearly-5-years-1.3460634

Getting back to pickles, I'm a bigos eater, also lots of salt, each polish deli makes their own version. And if there isn't enough juice, it isn't good bigos. My favourite deli supplier makes his a bit too spicy, so sour cream is necessary to stop stomach burning.

Very good food for a good price.
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zorro
 15 Jun '17  20:57 : 0 recs

Hi SSaines

It is only June. You seem prematurely overwrought by the problems of melting excessive ice on roads?

Anyway, I buy the idea of pickle brine and even cheese brine being [I/]the[/I] environmentally-friendly method of choice. No probs with that one. And of course, as a Pole, I consume an extraordinary amount of pickle (NOT, however, I hasten to add, any that employ vinegar, but just natural pickle - do try cucumbers pickled in natural sour brine, delish!] Only one problem there - I do drink the brine. It's just too good to discard. Thus, I am in no position to relieve this particular environmental problem.
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zorro
 15 Jun '17  20:48 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 15 Jun '17  20:50

Hi Ratopt

Indeed, long time no see. I hope you are well. Happy to catch up for a swift pint when you are in town, or vice versa. How's H.? Your suggestion for a democratic forum is interesting. It does, however, presuppose someone with the skills to build and maintain an internet discussion forum being willing, and indeed volunteering, to forego some of the potential profit in favour of other individuals. This is not part of the general human psychological makeup - that's why there have to be revolutions rather than los ricos just handing over the goods, as oligarchs don't tend to just form an orderly line to hand the mansions over to the plebs.

Anyhow, my main grumble is that I almost don't mind how stupid my interlocutors are (after 16 years in education and 10 years in journalism, I have no illusions about the intellectual level of general population, and am happy to settle for being civil), as long as they are HUMAN. If someone inflicts on me computer-generated bots in lieu of actual flesh-and-blood-however-moronic, they are tricking me into frequenting some murky lower circles of Dante's Inferno instead of wondering in the sun-lit Elysian meadows, as promised by the Ode to Joy. I am a Human. It is my right to hobnob with Humans. Robots feck off.

All those responsible - beware. I shall be seeking redress in the European Court of Human Rights.

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Lord Byron
 12 Jun '17  06:17 : 0 recs

http://sydney.edu.au/business/staff/stephens

Stephen is working on a number of topics in the broad areas of econometrics, finance, risk measurement and utility theory. He has an interest in both theoretical and empirical problems. Many of his research problems are motivated by practical investment issues. Stephens' current research looks at alternative methods of portfolio construction and risk management, as well as work on non-linear dynamic models. He is active in researching the UK mortgage and housing markets.

Stephen has strong links with Inquire (Institute for Quantitative Investment Research). This is a city-based organization that finances academic research on quantitative investment. He is also on the management committee of LQG (London Quant Group).

Stephen is a Fellow of Trinity College Cambridge where he has Isaac Newton's rooms.





Like minded people tend to cluster in certain areas.
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Ratopt
 11 Jun '17  15:02 : 0 recs

In reply to this from Zorro:17 Mar '17 08:05 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 17 Mar '17 08:05

Why are we here? Perhaps to generate pay-per-click income for whoever now owns this site? NOT Red Hot Pawn, to be sure?

And, with the hindsight, one suspects that all the song and dance about the Great International Serious Topics conferences of the past was merely about enabling such of us as turned up to verify with their own eyes that there were some tangible, flesh-and-blood entities out there contributing the forum; upon which, all such drive ceased and 'real' people are being whittled away.

What is left are two-dimensional cut-outs, that can be summarised in one sentence.

So, what is "serious" about this site, apart from the erosion of trust? Pity, that - for those who are not mere cyber phantoms, after all...
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Ratopt
 11 Jun '17  15:00 : 0 recs

Hi Zorro,

Long time, no see.

Could a sustainable forum model be democratic? I.e. Posters suggest categories for the forum and their inclusion is put to the vote, and ad revenue after costs is refunded back to posters according to post quality scores. Seems that ads make the world go round. So why not reward writers with the revenue rather than the site's owner?

One failing at present of the internet is that quality of written content is not rewarded. Maybe good content can only be rewarded once traditional gatekeepers are removed?

Who's with me?!
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Lord Byron
 03 Jun '17  10:29 : 0 recs

One can sit back and drink boiled water from the well with a sprig of mint and consider which way to invest according to reports of madness from the senate ?
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ssaines
 02 Jun '17  12:27 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 02 Jun '17  12:30

For all the qualifying they do, I do generally agree with this:
“Nevertheless, in our view household spending is likely to slow in the quarters ahead, along with the wider economy, as rising inflation increases the squeeze on household budgets.

This, together with mounting housing affordability pressures, is likely to exert a drag on activity and house price growth in the quarters ahead. However, the subdued level of building activity and the shortage of properties on the market
are likely to provide support for prices.

As a result we continue to believe that a small increase in house prices of around 2% is likely over the course of 2017 as a whole.”

That remains to be seen. Where will the new normal rest? The massive incompetence of May and her Mayflies knows no bounds, albeit Brits themselves voted this result. This certainly beats the Romans drinking water laced with lead. It comes close to the Jonestown Massacre in scope, without the benefit of a refreshing artificially flavoured elixir.
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cynic 09
 01 Jun '17  18:53 : 0 recs : edited 3 times : last edit 01 Jun '17  18:58

UK house prices fall for third month in a row for first time since financial crisis

How typical of "The Guardian", ssaines, to talk down yet another Tory success.

In fact, UK House Prices have now risen three months running.

UK House Prices rise in March, April and May.

Feb'17 £205,846
March £207,308
April £207,699
May £208,711

It's the Nationwide seasonal adjustment wot has gone badly awry, due to Brexit and the GE.
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ssaines
 01 Jun '17  13:21 : 0 recs

UK house prices fall for third month in a row for first time since financial crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jun/01/uk-house-prices-fall-for-third-month-in-a-row

Ain't Brexit wonderful? Come what May...
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ssaines
 01 Jun '17  13:04 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 01 Jun '17  13:05

Nothing like beet juice to melt the ice of the housing market:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140204-melt-snow-ice-salt-beet-juice-pickle-brine/

Key words:
"beat juice two lips"
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Lord Byron
 01 Jun '17  07:15 : 0 recs

Radio 3 news say uk house prices down for three months, caravan on a turnip field has a nice location, nestled in countryside.
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cynic 09
 29 May '17  12:54 : 0 recs : edited 3 times : last edit 29 May '17  13:01

In fact , Lord Byron, you'll find the turnip generally far more liquid than the tulip.
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Lord Byron
 28 May '17  18:56 : 0 recs

you can purchase an option on a tulip transaction instead of buying a tulip.
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cynic 09
 28 May '17  15:34 : 0 recs

UK House Prices fall 17%.

Breakfast at Harrods
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Lord Byron
 27 May '17  03:58 : 0 recs

http://www.risk.net/journal-of-risk-model-validation

Is worth a look
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cynic 09
 25 May '17  12:05 : 0 recs

LOL!
Shabby chic.
. . . . . must come down.
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Lord Byron
 25 May '17  08:10 : 0 recs

http://www.noted.co.nz/health/nutrition/can-we-eat-our-way-to-mental-well-being/
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