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Please use this forum to discuss investment strategies and financial management. Do not use this forum to advertise or in any way promote personal interests. This site is not authorised to give financial advice and the views of the contributors in no way represent the views of this site. Anyone using this forum to make investment decisions does so at their own risk. Always perform your own research and seek independent advice.

Note that various articles on the housing markets of the UK, USA and Australia are recorded at House Price Crash Discussion Forums
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PosterMessage
Slightly Optimistic
 16 Aug '17  11:00 : 0 recs

Who does the IMF really represent in the global economy?

A stockbroker in a radio interview told us about the IMF's warning to China last night. In essence the IMF issued a rather worrying comment on the health of the Chinese economy - it has described the Chinese debt position as being on a dangerous trajectory; from 235% of GDP to nearly 300% in 6 or 7 years time. It says however the Chinese economy will be growing strongly.

But global indebtedness has gone up by a third since the start of the financial crisis, so it exceeds $200 trillion now. By issuing a warning to Beijing about its national debt the US-based IMF seems to be applying double standard. And debt is understated. Off-balance sheet debt - especially in the West - is colossal.
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Lord Byron
 09 Aug '17  07:54 : 0 recs

Oil futures
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Slightly Optimistic
 08 Aug '17  13:18 : 0 recs

Dangers of following the money
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Lord Byron
 08 Aug '17  11:54 : 0 recs

Tactical nuclear strike using stealth fighters carrying special hi tech nuke missiles.
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Slightly Optimistic
 08 Aug '17  09:48 : 0 recs

The ineffectiveness of financial sanctions is a serious matter that reflects on the indiscipline in national/global finance. Despite being repeatedly warned, G20 governments want this dangerous state of affairs to continue.

Nevertheless sanctions get regular coverage these days. For example North Korea, Iran, and indeed the 1962 Cuban missile crisis are all mentioned in this article [FT]: A unanimous response on North Korea is the only viable option

The scope for a catastrophic misunderstanding between the thin-skinned US president and his maniacal North Korean counterpart is, to say the least, alarming. There are no channels of communication between the two men — or their countries — through which to de-escalate an accidental or deliberate confrontation. This contrasts with the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when Moscow and Washington worked together to avert nuclear disaster.

Much depends on how willing China, which as a neighbour and patron state has the greatest capacity to bring economic pressure to bear, and Russia are to enforce the resolution.
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Lord Byron
 14 Jul '17  07:58 : 0 recs

Books
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Lord Byron
 29 Jun '17  07:35 : 0 recs

https://soundcloud.com/waterstechnology/episode-75-julia-programming-ai-alternative-data-digital-currencies-game-of-thrones

My model has feeds from all major news outlets....
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Slightly Optimistic
 19 Jun '17  09:51 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 19 Jun '17  10:40

India.

See below:
Who will become the next hegemon? Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China and India, are considered by Gideon Rachman in China, India and the clash of two great civilisations

At least China and India seem to accept the overall authority of the G20.


From the article: "the Royal United Services Institute in London argues that, as strategic tension rises, Indian-Chinese relations are “in their worst state for over a decade”. [Moreover] as economic and political power shifts to Asia, it is the contest between China and India that may ultimately shape the 21st century.

All eyes on Germany's G20.
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Lord Byron
 19 Jun '17  08:44 : 0 recs

Hitler
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Slightly Optimistic
 19 Jun '17  08:10 : 0 recs : edited 2 times : last edit 19 Jun '17  08:19

No doubt.

From the Glasgow Herald at the weekend:
Indian foreign policy interest is now directed almost entirely at how to counter China and its rising influence in the world. With India's half-century old border dispute with China far from resolved New Delhi lives in an uneasy accommodation with Beijing.

The UK lacks the necessary economic or political clout to play a relevant part in India's China strategy. But the EU does.

Interestingly, China is a key trading partner of Germany, Chancellor Merkel visits China often, but not as a representative of the EU.

All eyes on Germany's G20.
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Lord Byron
 19 Jun '17  07:18 : 0 recs

The lse bookshop has books on finance
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Slightly Optimistic
 16 Jun '17  16:53 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 16 Jun '17  16:54

India is now a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation [ 06 Jun '17 08:38] However it will be conflicted.

The SCO Illusion Takes India
The SCO region covers almost 60 percent of the Eurasian landmass, with over 1.5 billion people included in its population, including some of the world’s leading energy-rich nations. So its importance is likely to grow in the coming years.

New Cold War in the Indian Ocean
Great power competition between the US, India, Japan and Australia on one side, and China on the other, is raising the strategic stakes in the maritime area

A new Cold War is brewing in the Indian Ocean, with an informal alliance of the United States, India [*SCO member], Australia, Japan on one side and China on the other. While tensions in the ocean are not yet as pitched as in the hotly contested South China Sea, the potential for conflict is unmistakably rising in the high stakes strategic theater.

All eyes on Germany's G20.
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Slightly Optimistic
 07 Jun '17  09:08 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 07 Jun '17  09:53

All eyes on Germany's G20

Canada, for one, wants to "robustly support the rules-based international order, and all its institutions, and seek ways to strengthen and improve them."

Speech yesterday by Canada' Foreign Minister:
Canada’s foreign policy priorities

The UK has at least €100 billion at stake on its foreign policy.
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Lord Byron
 07 Jun '17  09:04 : 0 recs

Oil and gas options ...
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Slightly Optimistic
 07 Jun '17  07:43 : 0 recs

All eyes on Germany's G20

The attention in the West to defence nowadays suggests that trust in the effectiveness of the G20 to deliver its political agreements is disappearing. Rodrik's 'impossible trinity' [Europe forum, 30 May '17 16:25] applies - is control over financial globalisation on the way out, leading to an unfettered global market?
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Slightly Optimistic
 06 Jun '17  14:52 : 0 recs

All eyes on Germany's G20. [05 Jun '17 16:49 and 16.13]

Interesting thoughts on the possible clash at Germany's G20:

Eurasian integration meets America First

There is much support from big investors for China's preference for relatively unfettered global finance. To remove important obstacles to this global about-turn, we learn that the EU will be encouraged to turn its fire on the US [a fight within the West] because this is one way to scupper the democratic checks and balances that are preventing President Trump from carrying out the politics-free agenda of investors.
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Slightly Optimistic
 06 Jun '17  10:50 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 06 Jun '17  10:54

Thucydides wrote about this, back in 400BC.

See for example the North America forum.
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Lord Byron
 06 Jun '17  10:13 : 0 recs

Empires fall and rise
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Slightly Optimistic
 06 Jun '17  08:52 : 0 recs

Lots of activity on climate change.

Following the current US president's stated intention to withdraw from the Paris agreement, California, NY and others pledge to cut emissions as proposed by Obama.

Trump climate deal: Modi vows to go beyond Paris accord

And India seems to be vying with China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to be the next global hegemon. At least they're now agreeing on climate change.
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Lord Byron
 06 Jun '17  08:39 : 0 recs

https://programmingpodcasts.com/episode/origins-a-podcast-about-limited-partners-created-by-notation-capital/aaron-gershenberg-svb-capital


Aaron Gershenberg is a founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s fund of funds and direct investment group, SVB Capital. Aaron joined SVB in 1999 and has been part of the venture capital industry since 1996. Under his leadership, the group has over $3.3 billion under management across fund of funds, direct funds and separate accounts.

Prior to joining SVB, Aaron oversaw the opening of FirstCorp’s Northern California office, a venture leasing company focused on early stage companies. Aaron earned a bachelor’s degree in Economics and African Studies from Wesleyan University and a master’s degree in finance from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Aaron combines his passion for philanthropy with his love of the outdoors. In 1984 he joined 50 students biking from Boston to Los Angeles, raising money for Oxfam America. In 1993, Aaron was a founder of the Hearst Castle Best Buddies ride, a 100 mile ride from Carmel to the Hearst Castle benefiting the intellectually and developmentally disabled. This is his 10th consecutive year of participation.
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