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The UK General Election



Note that various articles on the housing markets of the UK, USA and Australia are recorded at House Price Crash Discussion Forums
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Thoughtful
 16 Apr '18  09:48 : 0 recs

???
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Thoughtful
 27 Mar '18  08:06 : 0 recs

Boring Brexit !
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Thoughtful
 27 Mar '18  07:58 : 0 recs

Brexit is so boring GSA .
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George Sore Ass
 20 Mar '18  11:57 : 0 recs

Curiously little on the Mail Online or the Sun today about the brexit deal.... but the express is on top form. And commentards on the Express feel angry and betrayed. No wonder.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/934034/brexit-news-uk-brexit-transition-deal-eu-walkover-david-allen-green-irish-border-uk-eu-agr

But legal expert David Allen Green has hit out at the agreement, calling it a “walkout”.

Writing on Twitter, he said: “Other than on Ireland, which EU27 rightly sees as UK's issue to solve, the EU appears to have prevailed on every substantial point.”

He slammed the proposal saying it meant the UK was essentially staying in the EU, calling it a “Brexit in name only, where the UK is technically not a member of the EU but almost everything else stays the same.”

Adding it is “a Brexit which is entirely on the EU’s terms.”

Mr Allen also savaged the agreement saying that it could have been signed last summer, “given it is more of less just what the EU demanded in its April 2017 guidelines”.


And you know what. He's absolutely right.

The morons on the Express web site are angry, and feel betrayed.

But they should really blame themselves. Because they are the architects of Britain's humiliation. Every brexitter is.

Congratulations to the 52%. This is what you won. An unwinnable negotation with the EU, that has humiliated your country. You won't be 'free'. On the contrary, the most likely outcome now is that you're bound by EU rules, indefinitely, yet you have no role in deciding the rules.

Time to stop blaming foreigners and start looking at your own stupidity. You. Did. This.
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George Sore Ass
 19 Mar '18  14:12 : 0 recs

The UK well on the way to total capitulation....

UK makes concessions to get transitional deal

Most contentiously, Barnier said that the UK had agreed that in relation to Northern Ireland the withdrawal agreement would retain a default solution to avoiding a hard border under which the north and south of the island of Ireland would remain in regulatory alignment.

After the publication of the last draft of the agreement, including that back stop, May had insisted that no British prime minister could sign up to a text including such a proposition.


Bbbbbuttt... German cars.... Italian bubbly..... we won.... etc.

Brexitters must be crying in their real ale now. They won the referendum, but didn't realize the prize was the right to be utterly humiliated by the EU.
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Thoughtful
 17 Mar '18  09:03 : 0 recs : edited 6 times : last edit 17 Mar '18  09:09

The media tells us that Dr Mirzayanov the Russian developer of the nerve agent said to be used in Salisbury now lives in America ?

I doubt he has forgotten the formula ?

Why does he live in America ?

I suppose we shall have to rely on clever journalists to keep us informed !
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Thoughtful
 16 Mar '18  19:14 : 0 recs

I ask simple questions like who pays ex Russian spies ?

Do they get benefits , do they get pensions , are they self sufficient ?

Seem to have a reasonable life style yet how is it funded ?
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Thoughtful
 16 Mar '18  18:26 : 0 recs

GSA I don’t understand why the UK has so many Russians that have obviously left their own country under dubious circumstances ?

Many of them seem to be wanted in connection with alleged criminal activities in Russia !
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George Sore Ass
 16 Mar '18  10:04 : 0 recs

The guy was exchanged in a spy swap some years ago apparently. I suppose there was an assumption that since the Russians had released him, and that the west would have learned whatever secrets he held already, there was no particular point in killing him. But given some statements from Russia about traitors never being safe, I think it's reasonable to conclude the Russians would have a motive. The nerve agent used also points to them. But not sure what hard evidence there is. I think on a balance of probability, they're guilty, but not sure yet if the evidence is beyond reasonable doubt. But if it was someone else, they went to extensive lengths to make it look like Russia - even to the point of getting a rare nerve agent almost exclusively associated with Russia, and risking killing many other innocent people. I mean, the guy was living fairly openly, so could easily have killed in a way that was less likely to attract attention. But perhaps this was the whole point - it's fairly clear that Russia is spinning this whole thing to Putin's advantage locally, and he's got an election campaign on. Good opportunity for a bit more Russia chest thumping, and threatening opponents at the same time. What's not to like for Putin?

Regarding brexit, I suspect you will be disappointed whatever the outcome. It's fairly clear the promised sunny uplands are an illusion. Even Theresa May has finally admitted as much by acknowledging that the UK won't have the same level of access it had to the EU market as a member. Obviously... but apparently not obvious enough for most brexit voters, who seemed to genuinely believe that the EU would roll over because of German cars and Italian bubbly.

Given that the UK has done ZERO preparation with regard to handling a hard brexit with no transition, it simply has to get a deal at any cost. 50% of the UK's food is imported, and much of that from the EU. You might be able to plough up roundabouts and invoke the war time spirit, but I wonder how happy brexit man is going to be spending his evenings bent over pulling carrots out of soggy British roundabouts, without the roar of spitfires overhead?

So I can really see only three possible outcomes now:

(1) The EU keeps talking, knowing that every day the UK does not prepare and spend the money to cope with hard brexit strengthens the hand of the EU. The UK will have no choice but to eat sh1t and take WHATEVER deal it can get, however one-sided, just to get a transition. Because without that, it's lights out and economic collapse. None of the models adequately deal with the chaos, the legal chaos in the UK, as well as the chaos in terms of trade and transport. Such a deal will probably involve an open commitment by the UK to effectively remain in the single market and customs union indefinitely until the NI border can be resolved, which quite obviously it cannot. So the UK may well end up with no actual change, while having to pay full whack for membership (no rebate) and accept rules it has zero say in. Ouch.

(2) The UK, faced with economic collapse or a one-sided deal that is far worse than what it currently has (see above) finally concedes that it's Cameronesque bluff calling has not delivered the hoped for concessions and sunny uplands, and MPs vote to cancel brexit. Whether another referendum would take place, is another matter. Either way, it doesn't resolve the long term issue which is ageing deluded maniacs who hate foreigners and are convinced that the UK can do better on its own (which it certainly didn't before joining).

(3) The cliff edge approaches, May still cannot get her sh1t together. She still meets the EU and agrees to their demands and tells them what they want to hear in order to keep working on a deal, then promptly goes back and faces the anger of swivel-eyed loons in her party by telling them that she's not planning on actually honouring any of the promises she's making. All just to stay in power for as long as possible, while achieving absolutely nothing. The UK economy starts to slide as panic sets in that the UK really is going to crash out. There is not the political unity or commitment to actual deal with the problem, the government collapses and the UK is rudderless right about the time it crashes out, at which point all hell breaks loose. The economy is in free fall, the airports and ports are in chaos, there are massive tailbacks of trucks on roads halfway up the country, fuel and food supplies start to dwindle, panic buying sets in, and there is nobody to manage the problems. Eventually a new unity government comes in that does an emergency deal with the EU roughly in line with (1) above.


Anyone who thinks the UK is going to get any kind of deal that it will be economically better off under than it is now, is deluded. It is not going to happen. The UKs own forecasts confirm that under all three models, it will be WORSE OFF. Of course they say that their preferred deal is not being modelled, but their preferred deal is all the benefits of EU membership, none of the obligations and zero fees. That, quite obviously, is simply not in any way possible. And none of these models adequately incorporate the chaos of the changes required, both in laws and government, and in companies (supply chains, existing use of EU trade deals, etc.).

And even if it does succeed (as it probably is already) in reducing EU immigration (crashing the pound is a very effective way to achieve this), it's only going to mean more brown faces, because the UK needs immigration due to the demographic time bomb of old people, who have no desire to get smaller pensions, or work for longer.

I suspect most brexit voters will not be better off, neither will they be happy with the outcome, especially if the UK just ends up being Donald Trump's bitch, instead of a full, veto-wielding member of the EU.

Thankfully, I am in the EU, and things are looking pretty good over here. We'll be stacking up on pop-corn and enjoying the chaos from afar, while gloating over our 2-3% growth and the imminent arrival of smart, rich and capable people from the UK who want to run businesses here and bring more jobs here.

George
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Thoughtful
 15 Mar '18  15:21 : 0 recs

Well GSA we seem 2 have a lack of posters these days !

I don’t really understand how a Russian traitor could live openly in the UK , neither do I understand how his daughter is allowed to visit him so openly ?

Then again what do we know about anything ?

Only what we are told by the media ,

As for Brexit ? What will be will be !
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George Sore Ass
 15 Mar '18  09:49 : 0 recs : edited 3 times : last edit 15 Mar '18  09:50

Thoughtful,

So is an American trade war manner from heaven for the UKs Brexit negotiations ?

The US is going to war on trade with the rest of the world, and they have a big trade deficit with the UK, and you conclude this is positive for the UK's brexit negotiations. Wow. Just....wow.

In other news, the prospects for that big Russia trade deal you were so confident about are looking bigly good now. The nerve gas attack in the centre of a major UK town is surely positive for the UK's brexit negotiations eh? Fingers crossed they might pop a nuke over if we're lucky, then the deal should really be in the bag eh?



George
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Thoughtful
 09 Mar '18  09:12 : 0 recs

So is an American trade war manner from heaven for the UKs Brexit negotiations ?
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Thoughtful
 09 Feb '18  18:45 : 0 recs

So is war in Europe a possibility ?
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little c
 03 Feb '18  11:59 : 0 recs

In reply:

Honestly you have to read this guy's defence. It would be hilarious if you put aside the fact he committed an appalling terror attack.

The master race brain at work?

Yours, George?
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George Sore Ass
 01 Feb '18  16:34 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 01 Feb '18  16:35

Update. Finsbury Park attacker convicted after just one hour of jury deliberation.

Honestly you have to read this guy's defence. It would be hilarious if you put aside the fact he committed an appalling terror attack.

The master race brain at work?
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George Sore Ass
 01 Feb '18  14:20 : 0 recs : edited 2 times : last edit 01 Feb '18  14:31

Ladies and gentlemen, behold the most impressive legal defence in the history of British justice.

Accused had no reason to deny he committed murderous terror act

Yes, no reason at all. Aside from life imprisonment maybe. But other than that, nothing. Oh yes, and it was Dave driving. Don't know his last name.

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George Sore Ass
 25 Jan '18  09:45 : 0 recs

I have always resented being told what to do by the Germans !

Better get used to it. We used to be able to veto things and have a seat at the table to argue our corner. Now David "Mega trade deals in 12-24 months" Davis has conceded the UK is going to be following and accepting EU rules in a transition period without any say or veto. Ouch!

Interestingly, Davis made a speech in 2013 when calling for the EU referendum:

http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-opportunities-for-a-referendum-on-europe/

He made the case then for staying in the EU customs union. And he also argued that he believed that a strong public 'leave' vote was required, and expected it to be 70%+.

So it's interesting he was wrong about the level of public support for leaving, but has decided to use 52% as a mandate to not only leave the EU, but the customs union too, which he previously proposed remaining in. Although it has to be said, his grasp of how things work seems shaky considering he seemed to think (a) the UK could negotiate new trade deals before it leaves the EU (b) he could negotiate and make trade deals individually with EU members like Germany, France, etc.

The Euro seems to be doing rather well at present, as does the Eurozone. Brexitters on forums still bang on about its failure, and quote high unemployment in places like Portugal. But Portugal is booming now. The economic recovery is quite remarkable in the 4 years I have been here. Consumer confidence is the highest for 20+ years, and unemployment has gone from 17% to around 8%, and still falling, while tourism is the best it's ever been. This has only stoked confidence in Portugal that the EU knows what it is doing, and that the support it provided was critical to turning the country around.

The Germans and French seem to have a spring in their step. Brexit just isn't an issue to most in Europe now, there is a general acceptance now that the UK is on the ropes and is going to capitulate totally and end up essentially as a vassal state, following EU rules because it has no choice, while having no say in them.

Ironically, the Germans will have even more power over the UK after brexit, but only as part of the EU. Effectively every large EU country has an effective veto over trade terms with the UK, which means all the big EU countries, and groups of smaller ones, can effectively tell the UK what to do. It's going to be very humbling for brexitters I think.
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Thoughtful
 24 Jan '18  09:27 : 0 recs

Watching Sky news it seems Donald Trump was correct about recycling being a con !
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Slightly Optimistic
 17 Jan '18  08:39 : 0 recs

Thoughtful, the governments at the G20 have repeatedly voted that they do not wish to become more accountable for the $trillions of public funds they steward. This refusal of course undermines trust, not least in global finance. It also establishes a culture for audit safeguards.

I understand that a bank rescue package totalling some £500 billion was announced by the British government on 8 October 2008. It appears the expenditure can't be effectively audited as Westminster showed.

But the wider problem should really be addressed - perhaps China would support such a move when it improves the system of global finance, as Beijing seems to intend.
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Thoughtful
 16 Jan '18  23:38 : 0 recs

Yep SO , Tesco and their forecasts ?

Aitours and rewriting their accounts for the previous 3 yrs ?

Yet nothing ever happens to the accountants , auditors and directors ?

Not to mention Gordon Brown and the Lloyds takeover of HBOS !
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