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European Political Economy

The EU has just enlarged, and faces many issues. Please use this forum to discuss any factors related to the EU's health, sense of identity, economics and politics.

Note that various articles on the housing markets of the UK, USA and Australia are recorded at House Price Crash Discussion Forums
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George Sore Ass
 16 Aug '17  12:58 : 0 recs

So the UK government finally has a plan.

The Tory cabinet brains trust have gone to the pub, and they reckon they've got a winner. It's a customs system that the world has never seen before. Actually two, because it seems they're hedging their bets even now in case anything gets pointed out to them that means one of them simple won't work. It will require completely new computer systems. The software doesn't exist, because nobody has ever done customs like this before, so it's going to have to be written. From scratch. In a few months. And deployed. And companies will need to put systems in place to operate it.

The end result is that importers will pay the higher of the UK or EU tariffs (so despite wanting out of the EU, it effectively forces the UK to implement EU tariffs) and then maybe have a complex process to claim back, or pass on the right to a claim down the line.

Now it may look initially like this achieves no benefit if the UK is mirroring EU tariffs. But nothing will show the UK's spunk and ambition like completely creating an innovative and untested customs system, creating and deploying the software and putting in place the training and documentation required to make sure companies can use it. In 18 months, assuming they get agreement tomorrow.

Let's be honest. The UK has two choices. Remain in the single market and customs union for a period of at least 3 years after leaving the EU, and probably significantly longer, and hope the EU accepts this. Or facing the most unimaginably chaotic sudden collapse in trade that a civilized country outside of wartime has ever faced.

Because it is not even close to credible to think that even the software required could be deployed in time, even if it already existed. Let alone the issue of whether a customs system drawn up by politicians rather than customs experts is even vaguely workable and not so full of holes as to make it completely unworkable.

It's really going to be a car crash watching the UK proceed like this over the next few months and years. The only assumption can surely be that this posturing and idiocy is part of a strategy to ensure that once the UK concedes to remaining in the single market and customs union, they will be able to show the brexitters that they really tried to get something else, and perhaps that the EU will be more likely to give ground on other issues if they perceive that they've 'won' the customs union and single market deal.

But somehow, I cannot quite get out of my head the thought that Davis, May et al, really might be serious about this.
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Lord Byron
 31 Jul '17  07:33 : 0 recs

http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk/education

Profe talk for boozie lunch in posh hotel
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Slightly Optimistic
 29 Jul '17  17:43 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 29 Jul '17  18:06

Hegemons may feel immune from the trilemma.

See 2008 for an example of the financial discipline that has to be changed. However the political G20 isn't willing so far. Which governments are voting against their accountability for huge sums of public money?
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Lord Byron
 29 Jul '17  15:12 : 0 recs

Oxford and Cambridge bookshops are willing to supply books by mail order.

Courses tend to be based on books.

Hyper specialisation allows you to create hyper productive tools.

Many thanks, you actually posted a good link.
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Slightly Optimistic
 29 Jul '17  09:55 : 0 recs

Trilemma
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Lord Byron
 29 Jul '17  08:12 : 0 recs

He will always be pm.
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George Sore Ass
 28 Jul '17  16:46 : 0 recs

Irish PM says ireland won't build a border for brexitters

The DUP don't want a border with the south, but they don't want custom checks between themselves and Britain either. And now the government is dependent on their support to get brexit through.

The only solutions to not having a border:

1. Ireland reunites with the UK
2. Ireland leaves the EU and joins an economic union with the UK
3. Brexit gets cancelled
4. The UK remains in the customs union and single market

There simply is no fancy clever way to get around this. Which is why with over a year to consider this, the UK government still has no suggestion as to how it can be done.
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Slightly Optimistic
 28 Jul '17  13:09 : 0 recs

International trade prospects? As if things weren't bad enough.

UK wants to send 'colossal' warships to test Beijing's claims in S. China Sea
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George Sore Ass
 28 Jul '17  10:21 : 0 recs

The brexit negotiations are really getting farcical now.

It's over a year since the referendum. It's several months since article 50 was triggered. The negotiations have started. And still the UK cabinet doesn't seem to have agreed what it actually wants, with various ministers all voicing their view of what is going to happen rather than the UK government appearing to have some kind of plan.

And all of this assumes that they will get exactly what they want. The EU could quite easily refuse to agree to long transition periods or any deal. And even if it agrees, member states could easily derail it.

Brexit was never going to be easy, but the way this is being approached is an absolute clusterf*ck.

I can't understand how anyone can rate the chances of this sh1tshower getting any kind of deal as 50%. I reckon it's less than 1%, unless we simply take whatever the EU demands, which is not going to happen.

I still talk to business people in the UK, and while expressing nervousness, they all say that the UK will just do a deal that effectively cancels brexit, because they will surely not submit themselves to such an obvious chaotic disaster. I think these people are deluded and have their heads in the sand. The UK is bent on doing this, and the zealots are relishing leading the country over the edge and using it as a pretext to sell out the country to the low standards of the US. If you look at Fox, Davis, et al, that's essentially what they've been advocating for years.
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Slightly Optimistic
 28 Jul '17  10:00 : 0 recs

UK participation in One Belt One Road might be scuppered if, in an undisciplined world, our aircaft carriers etc are used to take a side in the ownership of the South China Sea.
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Lord Byron
 28 Jul '17  06:57 : 0 recs

Pm has no ppe degree, rather obvious, eh
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Slightly Optimistic
 27 Jul '17  09:01 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 27 Jul '17  09:02

2008. See below.
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Lord Byron
 27 Jul '17  08:06 : 0 recs

83% of financial options expire but .... insurance helps balance the risk model
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Slightly Optimistic
 27 Jul '17  07:04 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 27 Jul '17  07:08

Think so?

Follow the big money.

See below.
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Lord Byron
 26 Jul '17  19:44 : 0 recs

EU to fall apart
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Slightly Optimistic
 26 Jul '17  10:49 : 0 recs

Thank you for the mischievous comment Zorro. Have we disagreement on what is a serious topic?

Anyway the future of the EU with its fragmenting politics and the UK's part in it [fine of tens of billions for rebelling], is referred to today in the FT's Merkel is forced to take centre stage.

Interestingly it includes with no other country now setting the global agenda, Ms Merkel has become the one figure perhaps able to nudge the rest of the world into action.

But doesn't the UK's PM want a global Britain, and lead others? The news from the EU suggests that her plans for the future are almost non-existent. Especially in global finance. Something wrong here with her refusing to widen the debate and make the case cross-border.
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zorro
 25 Jul '17  21:31 : 0 recs : edited 1 time : last edit 25 Jul '17  21:31

SO

I see that you continue to discuss stuff with yourself, or rather using the bot churning out a random compilation of nonsense as your sparing partner. Whatever makes you think that it constitutes an "argument"?

Good luck with that.
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Slightly Optimistic
 25 Jul '17  15:18 : 0 recs

New U.S. Sanctions Damage Ties With Europe
This row is not just between Washington and Brussels. It is also between EU member states. The big risk is that if the bill is passed when lawmakers vote on July 25, it could break the unity that Europe and the United States forged in imposing and rolling over sanctions against Russia for its annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and its subsequent invasion of parts of eastern Ukraine. Russia could end up as the main beneficiary of this latest transatlantic spat. European companies and European unity would be the losers.

When the new U.S. sanctions bill was first unveiled, Germany and Austria accused Washington of using the measures to allow U.S. energy companies to enter the lucrative European market by shipping liquefied natural gas to new terminals in Europe and thus make up any shortfall in Russian gas imports. . . Poland and the Baltic states claim that Nord Stream 2 will increase, not weaken, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.

There is one glimmer of hope. The latest version of the bill states that the president may introduce sanctions “in coordination with allies of the United States.” That just might avert a dispute that would deal another blow to transatlantic unity.
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Lord Byron
 25 Jul '17  06:47 : 0 recs

Dunkirk and churchill films
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Slightly Optimistic
 25 Jul '17  06:06 : 0 recs

Ah, research shows such a remark is the desperate response to a lost argument..
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