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UsernameSlightly Optimistic
Joined04 Feb '06  18:48
First Post04 Feb '06  20:22
Last Post27 Apr '17  10:44
Total Posts9753
Total Recommendations669

Last 10 posts

27 Apr '17  10:44
The UK General Election
Softening domestic demand in China will cause a flood of output on to world markets

Will coming hegemon India be flooding world markets in a few years? Reuters reports that South Korean carmaker Kia Motors Corp said it plans to sign a deal on Thursday to invest around US$1.1 billion to build its first factory in India, aiming to tap a fast growing market at a time when its China sales are sagging.

How times change. The world's 10 biggest banks:

1. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Total assets: $3.47 trillion
2. China Construction Bank, Total assets: $3.02 trillion
3. Agricultural Bank of China, Total assets: $2.82 trillion
4. Bank of China, Total assets: $2.60 trillion
5. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial [Japan], Total assets: $2.59 trillion
6. JPMorgan Chase [USA], Total assets: $2.49 trillion
7. HSBC [UK], Total assets: $2.37 trillion
8. BNP Paribas [France], Total assets: $2.19 trillion
9. Bank of America, Total assets: $2.19 trillion
10. Wells Fargo [USA], Total assets: $1.93 trillion
27 Apr '17  08:52
European Political Economy
The French election. Comparisons are drawn between France and Britain by Philip Stephens in the FT: 'Emmanuel Macron offers the patriotic antidote to nationalism'. Macron argues that the interests of France and the security, economic and physical, of its citizens rest on recovering a strong voice on the global stage.

In the case of Britain we read: the failure over many years of British politicians of any persuasion ever to state the compelling case for close co-operation with the rest of the European continent laid the ground for Brexit".

A strong voice on the global stage? Bit long term. The electoral cycle is short term, with few enforceable international rules.
26 Apr '17  16:40
North American Political Economy
US foreign policy is evolving.

How to deal with the world’s most dangerous regime
To contain North Korea—and to conduct a successful foreign policy more broadly—Mr Trump has to learn how to talk to China. His instinct is to do deals. Last week he tweeted that he told Xi Jinping, China’s president, that “a trade deal with the US will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!” Later he explained that his decision not to label China a currency manipulator, as he had threatened, was a quid pro quo for China helping out over North Korea.

China may now be siding with the US on peacekeeping.
China wouldn’t respond to a US strike on North Korea

But. . .
North Korean leader takes the salute as his army fires rockets and torpedoes at mock enemy warships during country's 'largest ever' live-fire artillery drills
26 Apr '17  15:00
The UK General Election
Priorities, Thoughtful? Perhaps we should be worried instead about how the west is going to deal with the great convergence with the rest of the world in the global economy.

First, the US complains rightly that the weaknesses in the international financial system are encouraging governments to act unscrupulously and take huge advantage of others. Secondly the FT reports today in 'China’s steel battles with west set to intensify' that China’s steel battles in Europe and North America are likely to be only a prelude of bigger future fights as softening domestic demand unleashes a flood of output on to world markets.
25 Apr '17  09:21
The UK General Election
An example of the the dangers of electoral promises in a global, or even cross-border, economy.

International Monetary Fund or its replacement

The latest betting on the UK election?
23 Apr '17  14:19
International Trade
Perhaps Mark Carney is not prepared to be a citizen of nowhere, despite the demands of his G20 post.

Financial audit has a similar dilemma.
23 Apr '17  12:53
International Trade
Isolation politics brings us America first, China first, India first, Russia first, North Korea first. . . UK first?

Can the G20 be made effective? For what obstructs it, the chair of its Financial Stability Forum, the governor of the Bank of England, should know better than most.
23 Apr '17  12:53
International Trade

22 Apr '17  19:49
International Trade
National mercantilism with risks from state interference in foreign investments and default seems to be a greater risk in China at present than elsewhere.

The international protection of finance is widely discouraged, as the G20 knows but refuses to act.
22 Apr '17  17:25
British Political Economy
Trump puts EU ahead of Britain in trade queue

Merkel lands Brexit victory for Brussels
Britain has been pushed behind the European Union in the queue to strike a free-trade deal with the United States, officials in Washington have said.

President Trump has softened his opposition to negotiating with the bloc as a whole after attempts by his officials to open talks with individual European nations were rebuffed.

During a private conversation last month, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, convinced Mr Trump that talks on a US-EU deal would be simpler than he thought, sources close to both sides of the discussion told The Times.

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