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UsernameSlightly Optimistic
Joined04 Feb '06  18:48
First Post04 Feb '06  20:22
Last Post27 Apr '15  16:19
Total Posts7998
Total Recommendations668

Last 10 posts


27 Apr '15  16:19
North American Political Economy
China's plea for negotiation on the economic architecture of the future was clarified a little by the FT.

The Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, was interviewed earlier this month.

China has sometimes complained that the postwar liberal international order created by the Bretton Woods institutions — the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — was set up in order to contain it and other Communist states. Some Chinese academics and officials have argued that it is now obsolete and needs replacing.

To the specific question of whether China wanted to replace the Bretton Woods institutions, Mr Li was categorical: “There is no such thing as breaking the existing order,” he insists.

While the premier is adamant China is not trying to challenge the existing global order Mr Li is also clear that changes are necessary to accommodate its rise and that of other developing countries.

“We are ready to continue to play our role in building the current international financial system,” he says. “We are also ready to work with other countries to help make the system more just, reasonable and balanced.”

In that context, China’s moves to set up the AIIB and other institutions are probably best seen as bargaining chips and leverage that Beijing can use to push for faster reforms, rather than as alternatives or challenges to the existing global order.

27 Apr '15  14:10
North American Political Economy
The broad contours of Chinese strategic thinking on the future of regional architecture are beginning to take shape: Asia's security architecture should not include the U.S. or its alliance structure, according to Xi; whereas the regional economic architecture of the future is negotiable. A revitalized Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, including the Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific rather than the TPP, is his preferred economic structure.

Negotiable?
27 Apr '15  08:19
North American Political Economy
And from the BBC's chief business correspondent:

America's place in a multi-polar world
But times are changing. . . the changes are in one direction: towards greater control by China of international policies.

the Brits and other nations decided that any political repercussions from a displeased America weren't enough to outweigh the economic gains of supporting China. Other nations are hedging their bets as they position themselves in a new multi-polar world where the US is no longer the sole economic engine.

But for the US, it's hard to get used to not being the sole superpower. The AIIB and Brics bank sitting alongside the World Bank and IMF will be stark reminders.

26 Apr '15  19:59
North American Political Economy
I can see you're still upset at the world's rush to join the AIIB, which promises a financial world order of multilateralism. Moreover no nation will be allowed a veto on the rules unlike at present.

Correcting the fundamental flaws in the post 1945 financial system won't be easy, as the international community is finding.
26 Apr '15  17:29
North American Political Economy
I have to comment on some of the more outrageous remarks, PA.

Yes, China's economy may crash at some point. But international attempts will be made to save it largely because the nation has become "too big to fail" in the global economy. This assumes of course it won't take action to save itself.

Australia? Resources can be wonderful. For example shale gas seems to have saved the US for the meantime.

Democratic governments live on forever? Maybe not. I can see you're still upset at the world's rush to join the AIIB, which promises a financial world order of multilateralism. Moreover no nation will be allowed a veto on the rules unlike at present.
26 Apr '15  11:11
North American Political Economy
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has emerged as a key broker of perceptions between the U.S. and China. On behalf of the Belfer Center at Harvard, he has just completed a seminal report "U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping."

The report includes:

Chinese political, economic and foreign policy influence in Asia will continue to grow significantly, while China will also become a more active participant in the reform of the global rules-based order.

we are now seeing the rise of "two Asias": an "economic Asia" that is increasingly dominated by China; and a "security Asia" that remains dominated by the United States. China is now a bigger trading partner with every country in Asia than the United States. The U.S. is either an ally or strategic partner of the bulk of maritime Asia.

The broad contours of Chinese strategic thinking on the future of regional architecture are beginning to take shape: Asia's security architecture should not include the U.S. or its alliance structure, according to Xi; whereas the regional economic architecture of the future is negotiable. A revitalized Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, including the Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific rather than the TPP, is his preferred economic structure.

China is now committed to becoming an active participant in the reform of the current global order. There is no evidence to suggest that China wishes to abandon the current order. What is clear, however, is that China does not see the current system as set in stone.

Beyond Asia, and in the reform of the global order more broadly, China has a long-stand- ing commitment to greater "multipolarity" in the international order.

How to Break the 'Mutually Assured Misperception' Between the U.S. and China

China's decision that no one nation should have a veto in the AIIB is a colossal departure from the present global financial system.
25 Apr '15  11:11
Finance and Investment
China’s AIIB Recasts Development Finance — and U.S. Influence
The outcome will depend partly on the ground rules, or “articles of association,” for the AIIB Charter.

Yes, the lack of enforceability of the IMF Charter effectively destroyed it in its early years. Mayhem followed.
24 Apr '15  16:12
Finance and Investment
BP is just the perfect size for a competitor to take over
24 Apr '15  15:16
Finance and Investment
The Disintegration of the World

Extract
The tragedy of 9/11 and the bloody scrambling-up of the Middle East were painful reminders that the world had not yet reached any end-of-history ideal. But these events mattered less to the assumptions and strategies of huge multinational companies than one might guess.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its hybrid war in eastern Ukraine are different.. . We now seem to be moving back toward the age of Metternich, in which might was right: instead of the end of history, we have history’s revenge.

That doesn’t mean the age of globalization or of the multinational company is over—even as it announced a $1 billion loss as a result of Western sanctions against Russia, Exxon has been buying up long-term Russian drilling rights, in a bet that eventually the country will return to the world economy.

Of course BP and the banks are now early prey to the concept: "might is right".

Political economy is getting more attention.
24 Apr '15  15:04
British Political Economy
Another essay in the US's Foreign Affairs - this time on the decline of Britain, and its need for a new foreign policy [Empire at Sunset]

After seeing so many articles about the decline of the US, this reads like a new way to tackle the same subject - by allegory.


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